Managing Editor: Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. OECD International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook – annual More than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system was stored in the upper ocean (0-700 m) from 1971 to 2010, and about 30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m. Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the diminution of the Greenland ice sheet since 1993. These gases are generally known as greenhouse gases (or more specifically as radiative gases). Scientists have studied plausible pathways to a ‘Hothouse Earth’ scenario, where interacting tipping points could potentially lead to a cascading effect where Earth’s temperature heats up to a catastrophic 4-5 °C. Both direct and indirect effects due to interaction with other gases and radicals must be taken into account and some of the latter remain uncertain. Most of the net energy increase in the climate system in recent decades is stored in the oceans. If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. Finally, in relating emissions to atmospheric concentrations, there is the question of sinks, or natural processes for breaking down or removing individual gases, particularly carbon dioxide. One of these is water vapour, and climate models have assumed that the direct warming effect of CO2 is amplified by water vapour. In the northern hemisphere the sulfate aerosols are estimated to counter nearly half the heating effect due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. It was released in October 2018 and said: An IPCC report from Working Groups I and II (physical science & impacts/adaptation) was released in September 2019, on The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Its GWP is 23,900. Global emissions of energy-related CO2 are projected in several scenarios in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) annual World Energy Outlook reports. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body under the auspices of the UN, set up in 1988 to review and assess scientific and other information on human contributions to climate change. Global Warming I: The Science and Modeling of Climate Change. Weather refers to atmospheric conditions that occur locally over short periods of time—from minutes to hours or days. The IPCC also produces Special Reports, which are an assessment on a specific issue and Methodology Reports, which provide practical guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories. Climate researchers have designed models to predict the longer-term consequences both in air and ocean circulation patterns. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate-related data or parameters. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) In the atmosphere, some warming of the troposphere is evident since the mid-20th century, though there has been an apparent pause in warming since 1998. There is a positive feedback in summer since ice is reflective and open water absorbs heat. The Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 in the Philippines reduced average temperatures about half a degree Celsius (°C). Both oceans and some terrestrial ecosystems provide sinks which function as a negative feedback, that is to say they have increased their uptake as the atmospheric concentration has increased. Effects. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Conversely, there is scope for reducing coal's carbon dioxide contribution by substituting it for natural gas or nuclear, and by improving the efficiency of coal-fired generation itself, a process which is well under way. Learn Global Warming online with courses like Global Warming I: The Science and Modeling of Climate Change and Global Warming II: Create Your Own Models in Python. Each IPCC Assessment Report report is published in three parts. An Earth System Model (ESM) is even more complicated, measuring the carbon cycle, soil evolution, vegetation, and human infrastructures. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018) Recent estimates suggest that at times between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene), the carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reached between 330 and 400 ppm. The radiative effect is caused by infrared absorption, and molecules with more atoms absorb more infrared energy. The IPCC prepares comprehensive Assessment Reports about knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and response options. In May 2013 the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the primary global benchmark site, surpassed 400 ppm for the first time since measurements began there in 1958. Warming of the climate system is now unequivocal. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report (2007) However, there is doubt about whether in practice this occurs to the extent previously thought. Shutterstock credits: wandee007 (left), Amy Johansson (middle), Avatar_023 (right). An extensive collection of animated climate change and Earth science visualizations. This is natural and what keeps the Earth habitable. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. A specific aspect that is evaluated to be significant is the pattern effect of Sea Surface Temperature (SST). But modeling clouds and their effects has proven difficult. A large part of the increase in all greenhouse gases is attributed to human sources, i.e. Registered office: Tower House, 10 Southampton Street, London, WC2E 7HA, United Kingdom, Reuse of World Nuclear Association Content, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate change: evidence from the geological record, Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850-2005, Climate Change: evidence from the geological record, An Addendum to the Statement on Climate Change: Evidence from the Geological Record. Earth Minute. The present warm period (known as the Holocene) became established only 11,500 years ago, since when our climate has been relatively stable. The overwhelming consensus on climate change is human activity is responsible for the warming of the planet. Sea Level Change Portal. Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth’s climate system observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere. This effect is enhanced by atmospheric sulfate aerosols and dust, which provide condensation nuclei. The major role of water vapour in absorbing thermal radiation is in some respects balanced by the fact that when condensed it causes an albedo effect which reflects about one-third of the incoming sunlight back into space. The Foundation for Science and Technology, summary of debate on What is the right level of response to anthropogenic induced climate change?, held at The Royal Society on 16 June 2014 The Geological Society, Climate change: evidence from the geological record There are clear benefits to keeping warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C or higher. Daniel Bailey, “If you don’t like the weather in New England, just wait a few minutes.”. A number of indicators suggest that atmospheric warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases is indeed observable since 1970, despite some masking by aerosols (see below). A small, slow increase in their temperature is significant. However, the climate is a complex system and other factors influence global temperatures. Causes. Climate projections at the postcode level suggest that 4°C of global warming could bring temperatures of 43°C to Cambridge. The science behind the politics of climate change took a step forward and also ratcheted up concerns with the release of the Third Assessment Report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2001. Of course climate change is real. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2010, about 3.2 mm per year. The IPCC prepared a special report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, and how this might be achieved in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. Electricity generation is one of the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions, providing about one-third of the total and one-half of the increase expected 2005-30. “A well-known example is the south-north ocean overturning circulation, which is maintained by cold salty water sinking in the North Atlantic and which involves the transport of extra heat to the North Atlantic via the Gulf Stream. Graphs and animated time series showing real-time climate change data, including atmospheric carbon dioxide, global temperature, sea ice extent and ice sheet volume. While at lower levels in the atmosphere sulfate aerosols and dust are short-lived, such material in the stratosphere remains for years, increasing the amount of sunlight which is reflected away. Track Earth's vital signs from space and fly along with NASA's Earth-observing satellites in an interactive 3D visualization. This is based on the high confidence in an anthropogenic influence on the two largest contributions to sea level rise – thermal expansion and glacier mass loss. 1998 to 2012)”, i.e. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the established global authority on climate change, acknowledges this in its most recent Assessment report, from 2013: The simulation of clouds in climate models remains challenging. It was signed off by over 100 countries which agreed that major changes are required, to adopt low-carbon energy technologies. It said that the most cost-effective option for restricting the temperature rise to under 3 °C will require an increase in non-carbon electricity generation from 34% (nuclear plus hydro) now to 48-53% by 2030, along with other measures. There is, however, some concern … We define 'dangerous' climate change effects as those that are irreversible, spiraling (self-reinforcing), very large or very rapid, and with a serious impact on natural and human sy… Accordingly, it predicted that, based on the range of scenarios, by the end of the 21st century climate change will result in : There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the above effects on the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, tornadoes and to some extent, droughts. Studies of the Last Glacial Maximum (about 20,000 years ago) suggest that the climate sensitivity, based on rapidly-acting factors like snow melt, ice melt and the behaviour of clouds and water vapour, lies in the range 1.5-6.4 °C. For example methane has about an 11-year residence time before it is oxidised to carbon dioxide. Furthermore, slow-acting factors like the decay of large ice sheets and the operation of the full carbon cycle, suggest that this could double the climate sensitivity. As another example, Arctic warming could destabilise methane (a greenhouse gas) trapped in ocean sediments and permafrost, potentially leading to a rapid release of a large amount of methane. The difference is greater considering developing countries' average 25% efficiency. Of this 545 GtC, about 240 GtC (44%) had accumulated in the atmosphere, 155 GtC (28%) had been taken up in the oceans with slight consequent acidification, and 150 GtC (28%) had accumulated in the terrestrial ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks. With a doubling of overall electricity demand by then, and a carbon emission cost of $50 per tonne of CO2, nuclear's share of electricity generation is projected by IPCC to grow from 11% now to 18% of the increased demand. Global Monitoring Division (GMD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth System Research Laboratory, Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide About 34 million years ago, at the end of the Eocene, ice caps coalesced to form a continental ice sheet on Antarctica. Arctic summer sea ice disappearing in second half of century in all but hte lowest scenario. Explore a stunning gallery of before-and-after images of Earth from land and space that reveal our home planet in a state of flux. Climate, on the other hand, refers to the long-term regional or even global average of temperature, humidity and rainfall patterns over seasons, years or decades. Recent studies show that the oceans lose heat to the atmosphere during warm El Niño events, while more heat penetrates to ocean depths in cold La Niñas. During the last ice age, pulses of freshwater from the ice sheet over North America led to slowing down of this overturning circulation and to widespread changes in climate around the Northern Hemisphere. Earth's ice cover is shrinking. In addition to these well-documented radiative gases there is increasing concern about sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) used in grid switchgear, with about 8000 tonnes emitted annually and increased use envisaged. The second covers the impacts of climate change, the options for adaptation and identifies where people and the environment are most vulnerable. Here there has been a significant decrease in sea ice since satellite records began in 1978. As well as the band consideration, methane is a stronger greenhouse gas because it has more atoms in the molecule than CO2. This class provides a series of Python programming exercises intended to explore the use of numerical modeling in the Earth system and climate sciences. Models of the global carbon cycle suggest that the Earth system will be able to absorb less CO2 out of the atmosphere as the climate warms, worsening the warming problem. The September minimum extent has decreased, and the winter thickness is less. Another study estimates that unmitigated emissions could reverse a multimillion-year cooling trend in less than two centuries.”. Climate scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NASA evaluated climate models from the early 1970s into the late 2000s to … If all the world's nuclear power were replaced by coal-fired power, electricity's carbon dioxide emissions (now at least 11 billion tonnes per year) would rise by a quarter – about 3 billion tonnes per year. Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates. More than half of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is, Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming. Considering three long-lived radiative gases closely linked to human activities – CO2, CH4 & N2O – and their individual GWP, a figure in CO2-equivalent can be expressed. Over the past 2.6 million years (the Pleistocene and Holocene), the Earth’s climate has been on average cooler than today, and often much colder. * Carbon dioxide is essential to plant life, and needs to be at least 150 ppm to sustain it. We are currently living through one of these interglacial periods. Climate is defined as the statistical average of weather over a long period, typically 30 years. World Meteorological Organization, United in Science – High-level synthesis report of latest climate science information convened by the Science Advisory Group of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019 When ice sheets were at a maximum during the Pleistocene, world sea level fell to at least 120 metres below where it stands today. A sea level rise most likely to be 47-63 cm, due more to thermal expansion than retreating glaciers and Greenland ice cap. The real problem with the faith-based global warming movement is that its predictive models are complete garbage. By the 1990s, as a result of improving fidelity of computer models and observational work confirming the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, a consensus position formed: greenhouse gases were deeply involved in most climate changes and human-caused emissions were bringing discernible global warming. In 2006 China passed the USA as the largest CO2 emitter, and India is projected to overtake Russia as the third largest. NASA’s Earth Observatory. Carbon dioxide cannot sensibly be called ‘pollution’ at any envisaged atmospheric levels. Average life-cycle carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions for different electricity generators (Source: IPCC). OECD International Energy Agency projections and reports since then support this. Clearly, any country excluding or phasing out nuclear energy is raising the overall cost of meeting emission reduction targets. It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase. 15 (25 November 2019). Climate scientists first began to use computers to predict future global temperatures in the early 1970s. About 55 million years ago, at the end of the Paleocene, there was a sudden warming event in which temperatures rose by about 6 °C globally and by 10-20 °C at the poles. Travel through Earth's recent climate history and see how increasing carbon dioxide, global temperature and sea ice have changed over time. It was set up as a partnership between the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UN Environment Program (UNEP) and 195 countries are members. It concludes that climate change will have significant impacts including increased stress on water supplies and a widening threat of species extinction. Thus nuclear power's contribution could increase to perhaps 30% of the global generation mix in 2030. In the stratosphere, water vapour from methane oxidation and possibly from aircraft may be a forcing agent, but the former is included in methane’s GWP. Geologists have recently contributed to improved estimates of climate sensitivity (defined as the increase in global mean temperature resulting from a doubling in atmospheric CO2 levels). (In the Antarctic there has been a slight increase in ice extent.). * About 36.6 billion tonnes (9.98 GtC) from fossil fuels and cement production in 2018, plus about 5.5 Gt from land use change and deforestation (WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin #15). The Fourth report acknowledged that nuclear power is now and will remain a 'key mitigation technology'. The greenhouse effect itself occurs when short-wave solar radiation (which is not impeded by the greenhouse gases) heats the surface of the Earth, and the energy is radiated back through the Earth's atmosphere as heat, with a longer wavelength. While it is true that varying intensity of energy from the sun has driven long-term climate … The current level of NDC ambition needs to be roughly tripled for emissions reduction to be in line with the 2 °C goal and increased five-fold for the 1.5 °C goal. However, as warming increases, the possibilities of major abrupt change cannot be ruled out.” However, “the climate system involves many competing processes that could switch the climate into a different state once a threshold has been exceeded. During parts of the previous interglacial period, when polar temperatures reached 3-5 °C above today’s, global sea levels were higher than today’s by around 4-9 metres. The Earth's climate has changed over millions of years, and there have been times when CO2 levels were higher than today. CO2 levels were already high at the time. it is anthropogenic, hence the term ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW). It is most commonly measured as the average increase in Earth’s global surface temperature. It is now clear that global warming is mostly due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (mostly CO 2). A concise discussion of the primary climate change causes on our planet. Vital Signs. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) dispelled many uncertainties about climate change. CO2, with two bonds, absorbs some IR, but it is the next most abundant gas so its effect is significant. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. This injection of carbon may have come mainly from the breakdown of methane hydrates beneath the deep sea floor, perhaps triggered by volcanic activity superimposed on an underlying gradual global warming trend that peaked some 50 million years ago in the early Eocene. Furthermore, although most sources of anthropogenic emissions can be identified in particular countries, their effect is in no way confined to those countries – it is global. More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. However, in many countries there are now programmes to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from power stations, as these emissions cause acid rain. The remainder of the 'window' coincides with the absorption proclivities of the other radiative gases: methane, (tropospheric) ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. Smith et al, Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850-2005, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 1101-1116 (2011) Read stories and highlights from Coursera learners who completed Global Warming I: The Science and Modeling of Climate Change and wanted to share their experience. Meeting the Paris Agreement requires immediate and all-inclusive action encompassing deep decarbonization complemented by ambitious policy measures, protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and biodiversity, and effort to remove CO. Atmospheric concentrations of some of the gases that produce the greenhouse effect are increasing due to human activity and most of the world's climate scientists consider that this is a significant part of the cause of observed climate change. Our climate scientists have been working with the UK government and other research agencies on a programme called The AVOID2 programme on avoiding 'dangerous' climate change, which explores the potential long-term effects of 'dangerous' climate change. The amount, extent and rate of this exceeds natural climate variability, some of the warmest years on record have been in the last decade. The Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 further reduced uncertainties and led to calls for action. There is clear evidence of changes in the composition of the greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, with CO2 in particular steadily increasing to its present level of about 408 ppm. The report also states that costs of achieving any overall target for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would increase if any generation options were excluded. According to the GCP these ended up 50% in the atmosphere, 26% in biomass and 24% in oceans. Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio. These changes have a broad range of observed effects that are synonymous with the term. At the beginning of that cooling (in the early Eocene), the global average temperature was about 6-7 ºC warmer than now. A great introductory course into Global Warming as well as modelling which … That period is known as the ‘Ice Age’, a series of glacial episodes separated by short warm ‘interglacial’ periods that lasted between 10,000-30,000 years. The greenhouse effect occurs naturally, providing a habitable climate. World Meteorological Organization, Greenhouse Gas Bulletin #13 (30 October 2017) Nearly half the sulfates in the atmosphere originate from sulfur dioxide emissions from power stations and industry, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Similarly, the terms "weather" and "climate" are sometimes confused, though they refer to events with broadly different spatial- and timescales. The simulations have shown that the observed patterns of warming of Earth’s surface and upper oceans, as well as changes in other climate phenomena such as prevailing winds and precipitation patterns, are consistent with the effects of an anthropogenic influence predicted by the climate models. Warming also heats the ocean, causing the water to expand and the sea level to rise. Its remit does not focus on natural causes or trends of climate change. Concentrations of some of them have increased steadily during the 20th century and into the 21st, with carbon dioxide (CO2) rising from under 300 parts per million (ppm) to over 400 ppm. Then there is the question of residence time in the atmosphere. In respect to enhancing the greenhouse effect, or the likelihood of AGW, the particular issue is focused in the 8-18 µm band where water vapour is a weak absorber of radiation and where the Earth's thermal radiation is greatest. Climate data records provide evidence of climate change key indicators, such as global land and ocean temperature increases; rising sea levels; ice loss at Earth’s poles and in mountain glaciers; frequency and severity changes in extreme weather such as hurricanes, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods and precipitation; and cloud and vegetation cover changes, to name but a few. This perspective is important as a reminder that only a very small change to natural processes is required to compensate for (or exacerbate) anthropogenic emissions. In 2018 it rose 2.3 ppm … It is currently estimated to be 1.1 °C (±0.1 °C) above pre-industrial (1850-1900) times. This website provides a high-level overview of some of the known causes, effects and indications of global climate change: Evidence. This fun video series explains various Earth science topics, including some climate change topics. Coal-fired generation* gives rise to twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas per unit of power at the point of use, but hydro, nuclear power and most renewables do not directly contribute any. The following information comes from a 2010 position statement from the Geological Society of London. In the northern hemisphere, as global cooling continued, local ice caps and mountain glaciers gave way to large ice sheets around 2.6 million years ago. But a host of global climate models developed for the United Nations's next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021, are now showing a … “Climate change” and “global warming” are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. It is based at the WMO in Geneva. Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. In the wavelengths 5-30 µm a lot of this thermal radiation is absorbed by water vapour and carbon dioxide, which in turn radiate it, thus heating the atmosphere and land and ocean surface. Most of the net energy increase in the climate system in recent decades is stored in the oceans. S.J. These reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions, thus giving a range and probability of climatic impacts on different regions of the world. Arctic sea ice is an indicator. This would represent more than a doubling of the current nuclear output by 2030. Relating these atmospheric concentrations to emissions, sources and sinks is a steadily evolving sphere of scientific inquiry. More bonds = more vibrations = more IR absorption. Global climate models project future scenarios by modeling how broader-scale processes like greenhouse gas emissions force the global climate to respond. Carbon dioxide has a much longer residence time in the atmosphere, until it is either used up in photosynthesis or absorbed in rain or oceans. While the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations is remarkable, and the rate of anthropogenic emissions considerable (some 36 billion tonnes per year in 2014), even this is only about four percent of the natural flux between the atmosphere and the land and oceans. The focus of attention regarding global warming has been the atmosphere, where the heat is initially retained. Since then, the pause in tropospheric warming may be due to the timing of long Pacific and Atlantic ocean cycles. “Such high-risk changes are considered unlikely in this century, but are by definition hard to predict.”, The WMO 2019 United in Science report said: “With continued warming, systems can reach tipping points where they rapidly collapse or a major, largely unstoppable transformation is initiated. AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change * Part of this 'window' (12.5-18 µm) is largely blocked by carbon dioxide absorption, even at the low levels originally existing in the atmosphere. The ocean absorbs nearly 25% of the annual emissions of anthropogenic CO, Implementing current unconditional nationally-determined contributions (NDC) to reducing CO. The term is frequently used interchangeably with the term climate change, though the latter refers to both human- and naturally produced warming and the effects it has on our planet. GCMs measure the physical climate system: the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. The combined radiative forcing due to increases in carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and halocarbons is +2.83 W/m. The first two of four headline statements from Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (the Synthesis Report of the Fifth Assessment Report) are: Among the Fifth Assessment Report findings on physical science were: In the Fifth Assessment Report, four scenarios for future carbon emissions to 2100 ranged from means of 270 GtC, assuming substantial cuts in emissions and correlated with best-case radiative forcing of 2.5 W/m2, to 1685 GtC correlated with 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcing. Hence there is, for the time being, a balancing cooling effect on the Earth's surface. 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